From last year’s Padres top 20, they’ve traded away nine prospects, including the first three and six of their top 10, while their No. 4 prospect graduated and No. 6 had such a bad year he fell off the list. Granted, one of those prospect trades brought back Juan Soto, but if you’re wondering how the Padres went from 15th to 24th in a year, there you have it. They did backfill with a very strong 2022 draft class, but this system is very thin compared to how it’s been the last five years, especially in position players after the big two.

GO DEEPER

MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system

The ranking

1. Jackson Merrill, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 20)

Age (on July 1): 20 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 27 in 2021

Advertisement

Merrill was the Padres’ first-rounder in 2021 out of a Maryland high school, then spent the following offseason working on strength and conditioning, returning a completely different hitter. He’s got an advanced approach at the plate, including a real-life two-strike approach — I thought those were extinct! He also stays back on the ball well, producing gap power now that should end up as double-digit home run power when he fills out. He’s a plus runner with above-average range at shortstop, moving better to his right, and has a 55 arm, so while there was talk of him moving off the position when he was an amateur, I think he stays there long-term. Merrill fractured his wrist on a freak play in April, missing almost three months with the injury, but actually hit better after his return, and then held his own despite being one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. Merrill’s ultimate ceiling probably comes down to how good the hit tool is. Right now it looks like he’ll have a future 60, if not better, hit tool, which would give him a chance to be an impact bat even with 8-12 homers a year. If not, though, I see a high floor here, where he’s got a very good chance to at least be a solid regular at short who plays 55 defense and gets on base at an above-average clip.

2. Sammy Zavala, OF (No. 94)

Age: 18 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2021

The Padres signed Zavala in January of 2021 for $1.2 million, part of the delayed signing period due to the pandemic. He went out and posted a .400 OBP that summer as a 16-year-old in the DSL, one of only four regulars that young in the league and the only one to top even a .340 OBP. He started last year in extended spring training, blasted through the Arizona League in 10 games (.345/.412/.621), then hit .254/.355/.508 in six weeks in Low A. He was the only 17-year-old to get 100 plate appearances in full-season ball last year, but posted a median OBP for the level and was in the top 15 percent of all hitters there in slugging (same minimum of 100 PA). He has absurd bat speed, rifling the bat through the zone with big hip rotation for hard contact and power, while he’s already shown unusual plate discipline for his age, especially when it comes to laying off pitches out of the zone. As a defender, he shows good instincts and routes, playing center so far more than right, but the odds are he’ll move to the corner in the long term. His combination of high-quality contact and excellent decisions at the plate point to a huge long-term upside, with the risk inherent in any 17-year-old with only 411 career plate appearances to his name.

3. Dylan Lesko, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 15 in 2022

Advertisement

Lesko was headed for a top 10 selection, maybe top 5, when he blew out his elbow after an impressive four-inning stint at the NHSI tournament in April, making him available for the opportunistic Padres at the 15th selection. He has an unbelievable changeup, an easy 70, probably the best changeup we’ve seen on a high school pitcher since Cole Hamels. I avoid this kind of hyperbole but I truly think he could have fooled some major-league hitters with that pitch and his 92-95 mph fastball. At that NHSI tournament, he threw some plus curveballs with spin rates around 2900 rpm, which was a better breaking pitch than scouts had seen from him before. He should be able to pitch in games in the ACL this summer, and if his stuff comes all the way back and he doesn’t have any setbacks, he’ll be a top 100 guy this time next year.

4. Robbie Snelling, LHP

Age: 19 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 39 in 2022

The Padres took Snelling with the 39th pick in the competitive balance A round in 2022, paying him a first-round bonus of $3 million to buy him out of a scholarship to LSU. A former star quarterback and outside linebacker, Snelling is big and athletic, as you might expect, with a low 90s fastball and a plus curveball, but his delivery is rough, with a head-whack at release, and he’ll need to develop a changeup, which the Padres are already working on. I don’t love the mechanics and the history of quarterback-turned-pitchers isn’t great. If he can use that athleticism to smooth out the delivery, though, he has No. 2-3 starter upside.

5. Adam Mazur, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 53 in 2022

The Padres went for some probability in the second round after using their first two picks on high school pitchers, taking University of Iowa right-hander Mazur with pick No. 53. Mazur’s 92-95 mph with two breaking balls, including a 55/60 slider, and a very good delivery that gives him above-average control. He’s tall and narrow, without the typical workhorse starter’s frame, so many scouts questioned whether he’d be durable enough to stay a starter. He should be a fourth starter if he holds up, and I don’t see any real reason to think he won’t.

Advertisement

6. Victor Lizarraga, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Lizarraga’s second year in pro ball was a big step forward from the first, as he moved from the complex league to Low A and showed better control and command with the same caliber of stuff that led the Padres to sign him for $1 million after they were linked to him for what seemed like ages. He’s been 93-95 mph with a plus change, running his two-seamer in to lefties and finishing them with the changeup. He’s got two breaking balls that lag behind the other pitches, with a lot of projection left in velocity and pitch development. He punched out a man an inning as an 18-year-old in Low A, younger than the Padres’ first-round pick last year, the high schooler Lesko. There’s clear No. 2 starter upside here, with time and innings required to get there.

7. Jairo Iriarte, RHP

Age: 21 | 6-2 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Iriarte’s a live-armed righty who had some issues with command and with pitching at Lake Elsinore, with a huge BABIP split between his home and road starts. He sits 92-93 mph as a starter with a strange but very effective changeup that gets up to 90 mph with hard two-seam action, generating not just misses but groundballs. He’s more likely to end up in relief, where he’ll probably throw a lot harder, but he’s still got a lot of room to fill out on his 6-2 frame and could end up with enough pure stuff to start.

8. Henry Williams, RHP

Age: 21 | 6-5 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 91 in 2022

Williams blew out before his junior year at Duke, sliding from a possible first-round pick to the third round, where the Padres — again being opportunistic — drafted him, their second TJ recipient of the class. Prior to the surgery, he’d show a fringy fastball but a plus slider and a 55 changeup, with some projection left on his 6-5, 200 pound frame. He threw strikes, but lacked command and didn’t have great feel for his offspeed stuff due to a lack of experience, with just 37 2/3 innings total at Duke and no summer work. I love the mid-rotation upside, but there’s all kinds of risk here from injury to command to the lack of enough fastball.

9. Eguy Rosario, IF

Age: 23| 5-9 | 150 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2015

Advertisement

Rosario’s a high-contact, doubles-hitting middle infielder who can play solid-average or better defense at second, with a chance to be a solid regular there or a super-sub who plays second, third, and can stand at short in case of emergency. He’s an average runner to a tick above who probably needs to stop trying to steal so many bases (72 percent success rate last year, 68 percent in 2021). Rosario broke his ankle in drills in winter ball, unfortunately, and he’ll be out until midseason. We’ll have to see if he’s lost any mobility or agility after the injury.

10. Jay Groome, LHP

Age: 24| 6-6 | 262 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 12 in 2016

Groome hasn’t gotten his plus-plus curveball back after Tommy John surgery, as it’s now more of a 55 with good shape but lacking the bite and tight rotation he had in high school when Boston took him in the first round. His 2022 season was by far his biggest workload, 27 starts and 144 innings, and he improved as the season went along even with a promotion to Triple A and a trade to the Padres that took him to the hitter-friendly PCL. Three of his 10 outings there came at Albuquerque, a horrendous park for pitchers, including his worst start after the trade. The Padres had Groome de-emphasize his fastball and curveball in favor of an 81-85 mph slider with more bite than the curve, and the fastball ticked up almost 2 mph after the trade as well, going from fringy to solid-average. Groome’s probably a back-end starter at this point but close to major-league ready, with the change of pitch mix giving him a much better chance of contributing this year.

11. Garrett Hawkins, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-5 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 280 in 2021

Hawkins was awful in four starts in High A to end the year, but he was very good before that in Low A in his first taste of full-season ball after the Padres took him in the ninth round in 2021. Hailing from Saskatoon, Canada, Hawkins is huge at 6-5, 230 pounds, with big extension out front that helps his 55 fastball play up, as does its big induced vertical break. He’s got a fringy 11/5 curveball and actually had worse results against right-handers because of it. His high three-quarter slot isn’t ideal for a slider but I think he needs to try that, because without a breaking ball he’s probably a reliever, albeit one who might be able to punch guys out pitching mostly off his fastball.

12. Jackson Wolf, LHP

Age: 24 | 6-7 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 129 in 2021

Wolf is a junkballing lefty with four pitches, nothing more than average, and a funky, long arm action that isn’t conducive to power or command. He struck out 27 percent of batters he faced last year in High A, but with 16 homers allowed in 119 innings, then got bombed in two starts in Double A. He’s 24 this year and probably needs to go to the ‘pen, although I’m also not sure he needs to be all the way on the extreme third base side of the rubber, which seems like it would give left-handed batters a better look at the ball than they deserve.

Advertisement

13. Daniel Montesino, OF

Age: 18 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2021

Montesino had a promising pro debut in 2021 in the DSL but missed all of last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s a bat-first corner outfielder who might end up at first base, but the bat looks real with solid contact and a chance for future power. The elbow issue doesn’t affect his defensive future but it did cost him a year of reps, so he might have to start in extended this year when he would ordinarily have gone to full-season ball.

14. Tirso Ornelas, OF

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017

Ornelas wasn’t 100 percent in 2021 until the fall, when he mashed in the hitter-friendly Mexican League, but he carried that forward to Double A last year, hitting .286/.353/.408, with some hard contact but not enough power to be a regular in an outfield corner. I have always loved the swing, and it’s producing solid contact, but he’s putting the ball on the ground too often, and until and unless that changes, he’s probably just a solid bench bat.

15. Yendry Rojas, SS

Age: 18 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

The Padres signed Rojas in January 2022 for $1.3 million, for his advanced feel for the strike zone and a swing that looks like it should produce power when he fills out in his 20s. The Cuban is not likely to stay at shortstop, with a thicker build that’s probably better suited to second base, but the bat is very promising. He did walk more than he struck out in his debut in the DSL last summer, hitting .279/.373/.357 in 46 games.

16. Rosman Verdugo, 2B

Age: 18 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

Verdugo signed last January with Rojas and the since-traded Jarlin Susana, an impressive showing for one group of international free agents just one year after the signing date, taking a $700,000 bonus. The Mexican infielder has some now power from his hands and wrists, as the ball comes off his bat extremely well even without elite bat speed or other fast-twitch actions. He’s played all three infield spots but he’s definitely not a shortstop. He struck out 35 percent of the time last year as a 17-year-old in the ACL, although he was the youngest regular in the league and it was his first season in affiliated ball, so I’m willing to cut him more slack. He does have to hit, though, as he’s not a runner or likely to add much value with defense.

Advertisement

17. Bradgley Rodriguez, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-1 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Rodriguez missed 2022 due to a right elbow inflammation and never had surgery, then returned for instructs with the same three-pitch mix he’d had before, highlighted by a 94-96 mph fastball along with an upper 80s slider that projects to plus. He’s grown a little since signing but he’s still slight of build, with some room to fill out but not so much that you’ll feel great about him starting. He hasn’t pitched outside of the DSL yet so 2023 should bring his U.S. debut and a better sense of what kind of command he has.

18. Brandon Valenzuela, C

Age: 22 | 6-0 | 225 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017

Valenzuela had a huge year as a 20-year-old in Low A in 2021, then slumped to a .209/.334/.348 line in High A last year, moving to a less hitter-friendly environment, yet walking a bit more while still making contact with the same frequency. He made a lot of weak contact, with an unusually high pop-up rate, which has to improve if he’s going to have value in the majors. He’s always had the defensive chops to be a big-league backup, as long as the bat bounces back.

19. Isaiah Lowe, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 330 in 2022

The Padres’ 11th-round pick out of North Carolina, Lowe signed for $400,000 rather than attend Wake Forest, having been up to 96 mph before the draft. He was more 90-92 in instructs with a solid-average curveball and a strong, compact build that could let him handle larger workloads than the typical high school draft pick.

20. Justin Lopez, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016

A former shortstop who never hit, Lopez is now on the mound, taking to it immediately, as he’s been 94-97 mph in one and two-inning stints with feel for a slider and changeup. The delivery’s good enough for command, which raises the possibility that he could work longer outings. He’s athletic enough for it, but with just 10 innings under his belt in games, it might make more sense to keep him as a short reliever and let him move quickly to the majors.

Others of note

Estuar Suero is a switch-hitting center fielder who was the youngest kid in the DSL last year, turning 17 on Aug. 29. He’s 6-5 and athletic, but hasn’t even begun to grow into his frame. I could see comparisons to Kevin Alcantara, who was all arms and legs at 16 with very little coordination, but came back after the pandemic year at 18 with a little more muscle and much more intent to his swing and his running gait … First baseman Nathan Martorella might be the strong side of a platoon if he could get to a little more power. He was San Diego’s fifth-round pick last year, walking more than he struck out at Cal, with a decent platoon split and too little power thanks to a very wide stance with no stride … They took Lamar King, Jr., in the fourth round, a pick that surprised area scouts in the mid-Atlantic. King is a catcher with 55 raw power now, projecting to stay behind the plate, but his bat was not advanced and he doesn’t have much experience against better arms … Infielder Nerwilian Cedeño went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft after the Padres chose not to protect him. He had another injury-shortened year and still hasn’t hit as expected despite a good swing from both sides of the plate and solid plan for at-bats.

Advertisement

2023 impact

Probably nobody. Groome could end up getting some spot starts. Ray Kerr is a 28-year-old rookie who has bumped 102 mph and averaged 96 in his cup of coffee last year, showing a plus slider. He could make their pen.

The fallen

Outfielder Josh Mears has huge power and bat speed, but he struck out in 45 percent of his plate appearances between High A and Double A last year. I don’t know how you can project any major-league value for him at this point, even though the Padres’ second-round pick from 2019 is just 22 this year.

Sleeper

I mean, Lesko is the non-top 100 guy who has the best chance to make the top 100 next year, although I concede this is like telling you water is wet.

(Photo of Jackson Merrill: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k2ptbGljZ3xzfJFsZmlqX2Z9cLzAnameq12pvLF5kWlkqaqfqL2mr9NmnZqqnWLAur%2FTnqRmqpGjuKawjg%3D%3D